There's always an awkward pause when a non-gambler or a
beginner asks, "What percentage of bets do you win?" It's a less-than-simple question to
answer because it can't be answered simply. That, of course, sounds like a
cop-out, but the answer to that question really does demand an explanation.
///
Most professional sports bettors rarely sustain a long term
winning percentage higher than 55 percent, and it's often as low as 53
percent.
///
Against point spreads, where a bettor lays 11 to win 10,
anybody can expect to win 50 percent…after all, the only thing required
is to flip a coin and pick a side. The bookmakers' profit comes from the
vigorish or juice (commission/fee). Every time a player wins, the bookmaker
withholds slightly more than 9 percent of the winnings ($1 for every $11
risked). Consequently, a bettor winning only half his bets will ultimately go
broke.
///
We have picked over 56% winners the last 3 years, and we
post more than 2,000 picks per year.
All of our picks are posted at our TRACK US page, moments
after games begin – monitored by you. Don’t believe claims of past
results; in today’s world, any sports service can post their plays like
we do – moments after games begin. Make them do it.
Anyone who tries to convince you that they win 70% of their
bets is just a tout trying to sell you worthless picks.
The goal is, of course, to make money. The measure of
success of a sports handicapper is not only his percentage of winning bets,
but his amount of profit made over any given period of time.
percent of winning
bets |
Total number of bets
|
||||
50
|
100
|
150
|
200
|
250
|
|
65.0%:
|
13.3
|
26.5
|
39.7
|
53.0
|
66.2
|
62.5%:
|
10.6
|
21.2
|
31.9
|
42.5
|
53.1
|
60.0%:
|
8
|
16
|
24
|
32
|
40
|
57.5%:
|
5.4
|
10.7
|
16.1
|
21.5
|
26.9
|
55.0%:
|
2.7
|
5.5
|
8.2
|
11
|
13.7
|
52.5%:
|
0.1
|
0.2
|
0.4
|
0.5
|
0.6
|
Net
number of units profit
|
|||||
Graph shows effect of different win percentages over different numbers of
bets. When risking 11 to win 10 it is best to use no more than 2% of
your bankroll per bet - (Most pros use about 1 percent) - and 'pull the
trigger' whenever you feel you have at least a 55% expectation of
winning. Pro bettors tend to have a lot of bets compared to
non-professionals. Note that winning 55% of 150 bets is actually as
profitable as winning 60% of 50 bets, but more importantly, a bettor
is more assured of achieving his expected win percentage over a larger
total number of bets, and with more bets and smaller bet sizes, the 'ride'
is much smoother, less risky, and more predictable.
(Graph assumes all bets are same size.) |
|||||
That, too, is one of the facts of
life with which successful bettors must be familiar. It's a basic principle
of math: The more bets you are able to place, the more likely it is that your
winning percentage will be close to your expectations. A pro bettor must be as concerned with placing enough bets than with
establishing a great winning percentage.
///
A real pro applies all his advantages as often as possible,
not only the best of his advantages when they occasionally arise.
To illustrate the point, consider casino craps. The house
has less than a 51% winning expectation against a pass line bet at craps, yet
casinos advertise their craps games on signs 100 feet tall. Casino executives
know that if they can get enough players to make enough bets they will end
the day with approximately the percentage of profit expected. They also know
that the fewer bets placed, the less predictable the percentage of winning
bets. Can you imagine a casino wanting to limit the number of times you throw
the dice?
The accompanying illustration (below) shows the results of
different winning percentages over different numbers of bets when risking 11
to win ten. Standard vigorish charges of 4.55 percent are figured into the
numbers. (The bookies' net commission is 4.55 percent of all monies risked
when bettors risk 11 to win ten. See our article, A Crash Course in
Vigorish.) Notice in the illustration that winning 55% of 250 bets is more
profitable than winning 65% of only 50 bets, - and remember that a profit is
more assured - that is, more dependable - because of the higher number of
trials.
///
Generally speaking, non-professional gamblers go wrong by risking too
much of their bankroll on individual bets. They don't spread their risk thin
enough over a big enough number of bets. Professionals use smaller bet sizes
in proportion to their bankroll over larger numbers of bets. As a matter of
fact, one good way to spot a non-pro is that he often has less than a
half-dozen bets per week, and he risks more than two percent of his bankroll
on each bet. (Those sports touts peddling progressive betting schemes such as
the "Kelly criterion" or "one-star, two-star, three star"
systems aren't professional gamblers at all; they're salesmen selling dreams
over their 900-numbers.
Big swings in the size of your bets will send you back to
your job at the car wash quicker than bad handicapping.) If you're a
part-timer with a wad of 'mad' money to risk, it may be okay to risk 4 or 5
percent of your bankroll on a single bet, but don't expect to play that way
for long. Sooner or later, such poor management will annihilate you. To quote
from our book, How Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Pointspread, the population of bad handicappers in Tap City is dwarfed
by the population of bad money managers.
Of those genuine professional-level sports bettors I've
known, most would never risk more than two percent of their working bankroll on
any single bet, and all of them usually risk much less than that. The general
consensus seems to be about one percent. to learn more from our ebooks and start winning sport betting investment mail gisstablet01@gmail.com
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