I do not consider myself a gambler and I am not a big sports fan. I’d rather be playing sports than watching someone else play. When it comes to sports betting I am simply an investor.
I learned early in life that (i) the superior team
usually wins the game and (ii) the linemaker is very good at setting the
number. These are key to becoming involved in this business, and it’s proof that the outcomes of games, as a whole,
are not random. Unlike craps or roulette or slot machines or other casino
games, the odds with sports betting are arbitrary. I also learned that the
linemaker is not predicting which team will win (and by how much); rather, he
is actually predicting which team the general public thinks will win, and by
how much. The linemaker's job is not to predict the final score of a game,
but to make sure there is an acceptable amount of action on both sides of the
bet…to split public opinion.
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In essence, I, as a handicapper, and the linemaker are
trying to do two different things. Because of his limitations concerning
public opinion and some other handicaps, it opens up positive opportunities
for me as a player. This is what I have been able to study.
My background is in databases and statistics. Virtually
all sports handicappers utilize static
systems that compute the same things in the same way, over and over. These systems rarely get fine-tuned.
This limits accuracy and creates ‘winning percentage ceilings.’ To break through, calculations must be
based on continuously changing data.
This is precisely what we have developed and what we
continue to work and improve on.
We have proprietary computer systems that react and adapt in real time
to new statistics as they are generated. Our programs maximize winning
percentage by continuously correcting, adjusting and modifying to resemble
the fluid nature of the most current database universe. Forecasting sports
outcomes is a never-ending, fluid process.
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" … (our)
models maximize winning percentage by continuously correcting, adjusting and
modifying to resemble the fluid nature of the most current database
universe. ."
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As new statistics embed into the code, the schedules
for tomorrow’s games are being scrutinized for significant data. No team or player makes a
good bet. Only lines makes good bets.
We manually check the injury list and the rumor mill for any
significance and then we shop for lines.
Because
sports betting is different from other forms of gambling, you can gain and
keep an advantage. In sports betting, large bookmakers merely act as brokers;
they have no vested interest in the outcome of the game. My 'opponent' is not
the bookmaker but the player betting on the other side. I realized years ago
that if I handicapped full time for decades and he spent 10 minutes reading
the morning sports page, I would have an undeniable edge.
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In
Las Vegas, they’re known as grinders. Many grinders have over 2,000
plays a year on all sports. They play, simply put, 1.1% of their bankroll on each play to win 1
percent; that is, 1.1 'units' to win 2 units. If they win 55% of our plays,
they win 110 units (after vigorish). 1,100 wins minus 900 losses minus 90
vigorish. 110 units @ 1% = 110% profit per year - before compounding.
That’s a good return on investment. 110% return on investment is
possible because at 2.2% - bet 2,000 times they are able to invest 2,200% of
our original bankroll; - the same money 20 times in a year. The return is
actually better with the compounding effect.
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‘Seize
the moment.’ If you've got $50,000 (or $5,000)…(or
$5 Million) you want to double
over the next few months, to get our winning ssystem eBook mail gisttablet01@gmail.com
Hi Denny!
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